What happens when gas hits $8 a gallon? What kinds of changes will we see?

In his book $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better, Christopher Steiner tells us we can expect to fly the friendly skies a lot less often. Most of the big airlines operate on very narrow margins, and when fuel costs soar, in order to stay aloft themselves, they must pass it on to their customers.



Just as $6 gas leaves SUVs dead in the road, $8 a gallon fuel will ground a lot of planes. Steiner predicts that many of the large airlines we’ve known all of our lives- Delta, United, Continental, American; like those unwieldy SUVs, will fail to make the curve in the road, if I may mix metaphors. US domestic routes and flights will shrink to 50% of what they are today. The smaller towns and cities will see most of their flights fly away for good.  The focus will be on the most profitable routes, and the more efficient airlines like Southwest and Jet Blue will dominate. A coast to coast ticket will cost a cool grand, rather than $99 each way from NYC to LA. Coach seat across the pond to Europe? 2 grand at best.

Small regional jet service will disappear—no routes shorter than 350 miles or so. Instead of 25 flights between cities, there will be two big, full ones. The short shuttles and hoppers will be gone; or simply private for those who can afford the luxury. The airports too will contract- no need for those satellite parking lots- there won’t be enough cars to park there.

The aircraft manufacturers will have to scramble because there’ll be a lot of used aircraft on the market. Airlines see the future- they are scrambling to buy planes like the Boeing 787- 900 orders already for a plane that costs 150 million. Give be two. Why? Because it’s lighter and 20% more fuel efficient. Like the SUVs, gas guzzling planes will be cheap to buy and astronomical to operate.

We’ll still take long trips from time to time, but we’ll go to Europe for 3 weeks instead of along weekend, and we’ll do it once or twice in our lives. We’ll rediscover local attractions we’ve neglected.

As a result of higher airfares and fewer flights, families may tend to concentrate in one region, at least if they want to see each other more than once in a blue moon. If you do move cross country, you’ll Skype more than fly to see relatives.  For this very reason, a lot of kids will attend college closer to home, and this will keep some very good students in the community. State colleges will serve mostly folks from that state.

A lot of high end destination resorts will see business shrink, and the townies will curse the tourists for not coming, rather than complain because they do. Get set to see real estate in Aspen, and Jackson Hole decline. And Disneyworld and Las Vegas, play lands built on cheap oil will shrink back into swamp and desert towns. You’ll be able to see Mickey Mouse and Cinderella on DVDs, but not in person at the Magic Kingdom. It won’t survive $8 gas. And the gamblers will have to play the black jack tables closer to home or settle for church bingo.

But with families living closer, folks staying nearer to home, local community will flourish. Like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, we’ll discover the wonders in our own back yard and see our local friends and family more often. As knowledge is becoming more and more global, people and ‘stuff” will become more and more local. We will plant deeper roots.  And what about $10 a gallon gas? Stay tuned.

$20 a Gallon, Part 8: $18 Gas – A Renaissance of Rail!
$20 a Gallon, Part 7: $16 Gas – Local Food Rises Again!
$20 a Gallon, Part 6: $12 Gas – Bye ‘Burbs, Hello City Life!
$20 a Gallon, Part 5: $14 Gas —Small Town Renaissance
$20 a Gallon, Part 4: $10 Gas — Drive Small and Clean
$20 a Gallon, Part 2: $6 Gas Kills SUVs dead!
How Rising Gas Prices will Spur Waste into Resources