The Senate will decide this
week whether to follow in California's footsteps and pass legislation
requiring cuts in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate
change.

Lawmakers are to vote today to begin debate on a bill that could
reshape the U.S. economy by requiring industry to pay to emit carbon
dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. Opponents call it a new tax on
industry that could raise gas prices and energy bills for consumers.
Supporters say it's a crucial step to advance cleaner energy and
protect the planet.

There's a growing consensus in Congress that global warming poses a
serious threat, but the bill's backers still fear they could end up
short of the 60 votes needed to avoid a filibuster in the Senate. The
measure's sponsors believe that getting a majority of senators to back
the bill would be a show of strength, laying the groundwork for passage
in the next Congress under a new president.

"However far we take it, it is very important to start now," said
Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., who chairs the Senate Environment and
Public Works Committee and has been shepherding the bill through the
Senate.

Opponents of the bill also see an opportunity: With gas prices
hitting record highs and the economy floundering, they believe they can
rally opposition to the measure by focusing attention on its potential
costs to businesses and consumers.

"It seems unlikely that as American families face harsh economic
times that any senator would dare stand on the Senate floor and vote in
favor of significantly increasing the price of gas at the pump and
costing millions of American jobs - all for no environmental gain,"
said Matt Dempsey, communications director for Sen. James Inhofe of
Oklahoma, the ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public
Works Committee.

Most environmental groups support the bill, although some say it
doesn't go far enough. The measure would reduce U.S. greenhouse gases
by about 66 percent below current levels by 2050, but many climate
scientists say reductions of at least 80 percent below 2000 levels will
be required to avoid the most severe impacts of rising temperatures.

'Cap and trade'

The bill uses the same "cap and trade" approach featured in the
legislation passed by the California Legislature and signed by Gov.
Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. The Senate bill would cap emissions in
2012 and require them to drop by almost 2 percent a year until 2050.
The measure would cover about 87 percent of U.S. emissions - from 2,100
coal-fired power plants, refineries, natural gas processors and
factories - and allow those emitters to buy and sell credits to pollute.

The bill is already spilling over into the presidential race. All
three major candidates have been touting their support for mandatory
cuts in emissions on the campaign trail, although none has confirmed he
or she will show up for this week's debate. The League of Conservation
Voters called on all three Friday to return to the Senate, saying their
votes could "make or break this important legislation."

The presumptive GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, is using
the issue to distance himself from President Bush, who opposes
mandatory limits. He joined his friend Sen. Joe Lieberman,
independent-Conn., to sponsor similar bills in recent years, but he's
now hinting he may withhold his support unless the bill contains new
incentives for nuclear energy.

"We're never going to really significantly reduce greenhouse gas
emissions unless nuclear power is a major component" of U.S. energy
supply, McCain has said.

A thorny issue

Nuclear power is likely to be one of the thorniest issues in the
debate. Republican opponents of the bill are expected to offer
amendments to boost nuclear energy, which critics call "poison pill"
amendments because they could erode support for the bill among
Democrats who oppose an expansion of nuclear power.

Opponents also may try to amend the legislation to pre-empt all
state climate laws - in particular, California's efforts to regulate
emissions. Boxer has pledged to fight the effort and suggested she
might urge Democratic leaders to pull the bill from the floor if a
pre-emption measure passes.

The White House has been working to defeat the bill for months,
starting with a Rose Garden speech by President Bush in April in which
he warned the measure could raise gas prices and put U.S. businesses at
a competitive disadvantage.

The bill's backers will try to shift the debate by pointing to
economic and environmental costs of failing to act. They got a boost
from a new report by Bush's National Science and Technology Council,
released last week under court order, warning that the United States
will face more heat waves, wildfires and water shortages, stronger
storms, coastal flooding and an increased risk from some diseases
because of rising temperatures.

More than 1,700 scientists, including six Nobel Prize winners,
signed a letter last week urging lawmakers to pass the bill. "The
longer we wait, the harder and more costly it will be to limit climate
change and to adapt to those impacts that will not be avoided," the
letter read.

Key players to watch

-- Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. -
She chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and sees
this bill as her chance to leave a lasting legacy. She'll have a tough
task fighting off "poison pill" amendments aimed at killing the bill.

-- Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. -
The presumptive GOP nominee has long championed a cap-and-trade bill,
despite opposition from President Bush and most Republican lawmakers.
He's said he's likely to miss this week's climate votes, but his
support for action on global warming could make it tougher for other
GOP senators to oppose the bill.

-- Swing senators -
Republican Sens. Gordon Smith of Oregon and John Sununu of New
Hampshire have opposed past climate bills, but they face tough
re-election races in states where public concern over global warming
runs high. Their votes could be key to reaching a filibuster-proof
60-vote majority.

-- Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla. -
The ranking Republican on Boxer's committee calls the bill the largest
tax increase in history and has vowed to defeat it. Watch for Inhofe
and his allies to unleash a wave of amendments that could topple the
bill.

-- Sen. John Warner, R-Va. - The widely
respected former secretary of the Navy is retiring this year, but hopes
that passing a climate bill with his name on it will be his swan song.

-- Sen. Joe Lieberman, independent-Conn. -
He supports McCain's presidential bid and has been leading the drive to
pass a climate bill since 2003. He could be a bridge to lawmakers on
the fence.

How the bill works

-- Cap: The
measure would require U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases to peak in
2012, then gradually decline by about 2 percent a year until 2050 - for
a total reduction of about 66 percent from current levels.

-- Trade: To
meet the required reductions, 2,100 major emitters - mostly coal-fired
power plants, oil refineries, natural gas processors and chemical
plants - would have to buy permits to emit greenhouse gases. Companies
with more permits than they need could trade or sell them to other
firms.

-- Auction: Initially, many of the
credits would be given away to emitters to help them transition to the
new system - which some critics call a giveaway to polluters.
Eventually most credits would be auctioned off, generating trillions in
dollars for the government to distribute. The money would pay for clean
energy technologies and rebates to poor consumers, who will likely face
higher energy prices because of the bill.

-- Allowances: The
permits to emit greenhouse gases, called allowances, won't just go to
industry. States like California that act on climate change would be
offered $566 billion worth of allowances through 2050. The bill gives
billions more in incentives for green buildings, energy efficiency
measures and conservation at farms and in forests. But many
conservatives see it a tax-and-spend scheme dressed up as a
market-based approach.

-- Offsets: The bill
allows major emitters to meet 15 percent of their emissions reductions
by buying offsets, such as tree planting, to absorb carbon dioxide.
They could meet another 15 percent of their reductions through
international projects, such as reducing deforestation.

Carbon board: A
Carbon Market Efficiency Board, likened to a Federal Reserve Board for
carbon, would report to Congress on how the system is working. If the
price of carbon rises too quickly, the board could allow emitters to
borrow from their future allowances to meet today's requirements.

Share