At $4 a gallon, we saw Americans cut back on driving by billions of miles, and abandon SUVs in droves for hybrids and other fuel efficient cars

In his groundbreaking book $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better, Christopher Steiner takes us through gateways of gas prices in $2 increments, and defines what changes we can expect to see, every step of the way. At $4 a gallon, we saw Americans cut back on driving by billions of miles, and abandon SUVs in droves for hybrids and other fuel efficient cars. Amtrak began selling out routes, and mass transit in general got a big bump - 300 million more trips in 2008 than 2007. People began walking routes they had driven in the recent past.

At $6 a gallon, we’ll see another sea change. Fuel bills that were $400 will skyrocket to $1200. That will get a lot of folks’ attention.

Small cars will go up in value. The premium price that hybrids commanded at $4 gas will just get stronger. SUVs will get cheap to buy, but outrageous to operate. SUVs are like a delicate species that need cheap energy to survive. At higher gas prices, they might be worth more as temporary shelter - you could weld two big ones together and have a nice trailer home!

Steiner predicts that Americans will take to diesel cars - like the Ford Fiesta ECOnetic that gets 65 miles per gallon! The catch - you can buy it in Europe today but not here. Sure they clatter a little, but with clean diesel technology, they run as clean as or cleaner than current models, the engines last longer, and diesels get better mileage because they burn fuel more efficiently. With biodiesel becoming more widely available, it could help us reduce CO2 emissions as well.

To be sure, there will be some painful adjustments, but $6 gas will also save lives. As we drive fewer miles, fewer mishaps occur. Harvard and University of Alabama did a study that determined that every 10% rise in fuel prices resulted in 2.3% fewer highway deaths nationwide. That means that $6 gas would save 4000 more lives than $4 gas, more than all the people lost on 9/11. One of the authors of the study figures that other factors will kick in as well as gas prices rise- $10 gas would save 20,000 lives a year on the roads.

And while SUVs are touted to protect their passengers, they actually are less roadworthy and nimble than smaller cars - they roll over more easily and can’t swerve to avoid collision as easily as smaller lighter vehicles. For every million Toyota Camrys on the road, 70  people perish. Same for the Volkswagen Jetta. Toyota Avalon, 60 per million, Nissan Maxima, 79. The SUV score: Toyota 4Runner - 137 deaths per million, Chevy Tahoe, 141. Toyota Tacoma pickup, 171, and Ford F-series pickup - 238 deaths per million. Higher gas = safer driving as bigger cars leave the road.

Other statistics - a $1 rise in gas prices results in a 10% dip on obesity, as more of walk places we use to drive. More kids will stay in shape walking to school because the districts won’t be able to afford as many bus miles. And it will result in less smog and cleaner air- so our lungs will be healthier. More cops will walk the beat instead of drive it, so we’ll get to know the local cop again as she patrols safer neighborhoods.

Like any major change, there will be struggle. But $6 a gallon gas will help bring about a safer, healthier America. If $6 gas is good, is $8 better? Stay tuned.

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$20 a Gallon, Part 6: $12 Gas – Bye ‘Burbs, Hello City Life!
$20 a Gallon, Part 5: $14 Gas —Small Town Renaissance
$20 a Gallon, Part 4: $10 Gas — Drive Small and Clean
$20 a Gallon, Part 3: $8 Gas Clears the Friendly Skies!
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